NZD/USD trades with modest losses, holds above mid-0.6400s ahead of US NFP

• NZD/USD remains under some selling pressure for the second successive day on Friday.
• The USD adds to the previous day’s recovery gains and exerts some downward pressure.
• A softer risk tone further weighs on the risk-sensitive ahead of the crucial US NFP report.

The NZD/USD pair edges lower for the second successive day on Friday and moves away from its highest level since June 2022 touched the previous day. The pair remains on the defensive through the first half of the European session and is currently placed just above mid-0.6400s.

The US Dollar builds on the overnight recovery move from a nine-month low and gains some follow-through traction on the last day of the week, which, in turn, is seen weighing on the NZD/USD pair. The modest USD uptick could be attributed to some repositioning trade amid hopes for strong US monthly jobs data, due for release later during the early North American session.

An unexpected drop in the US Weekly Initial Jobless Claims pointed to the underlying strength in the labor market and raised the possibility of a positive surprise from the US NFP report. Furthermore, the upbeat data forced investors to re-evaluate their expectations about the Fed’s future rate-hike path, which, in turn, prompts some short-covering around the greenback.

The anxiety ahead of the key US macro data is evident from a generally softer tone around the equity markets. This offers additional support to the safe-haven buck and weighs on the risk-sensitive Kiwi. That said, declining US Treasury bond yields hold back the USD bulls from placing aggressive bets and help limit the downside for the NZD/USD pair, at least for now.

From a technical perspective, repeated failures to find acceptance above the 0.6500 psychological mark could be seen as signs of bullish exhaustion. That said, it will still be prudent to wait for strong follow-through selling before confirming that the NZD/USD pair has topped out in the near term and positioning for any meaningful corrective pullback.

Technical levels to watch